Publication

Foreign Policy Audit: Index of Relations (3rd edition)

12:23 PM 26-4-2017

The Institute of World Policy and Truman Agency published the 3rd edition of the “Foreign Policy Audit: Index of Relations” report.

This publication offers in-depth analysis of the current situation in Ukraine’s foreign policy with several key partners: the EU, the US, China and Russia. The way we calculate our index is that each foreign policy event – key public statement, meeting, agreement, decision – is given positive or negative points, depending on whether the event had a positive or negative impact on bilateral relations. The sum of points for events related to each partner form the Index of Relations with that country.

Over January-March 2017, Ukraine continued to develop its key bilateral relationships in a generally positive way, despite a high level of uncertainty associated with both Russian actions against Ukraine and the transition period of the new American administration.

In Ukraine–EU relations, the first three months of 2017 were broadly mutually beneficial for both Ukraine and the European Union. Dialogue between Brussels and Kyiv was fairly predictable and was less politicized than in the past. While the main issues on the bilateral agenda remain combating corruption and reforming Ukraine’s judiciary, Ukraine–EU relations also managed to reach a breakthrough on visa liberalization.

Much like Trump’s campaign slogan, Ukraine’s relations with the United States were guided by the principle, “America First”, with the main rationale being to establish and manage a relationship with the incoming administration that would keep the US as an active partner in deterring Russian aggression, if not as an ally of Ukraine. To that end, Ukrainian officials initiated a striking series of contacts in the Trump Administration.

As to relations with China, the beginning of the 2017 saw a surge in cooperation. Overall, the relationship with China has shown a steady trend towards improvement and has finally taken its place in the spotlight for Ukraine’s leadership, alongside the country’s other key bilateral partners, the US and the EU.

Russia keeps setting the negative record in relations with Ukraine: the overall points obtained by events during this quarter were twice as bad as in the previous Index. In the first trimester of 2017, Russia mostly made itself felt in covert operations, a major escalation in Avdiivka, and its position on trials pending in a number of in international courts.

The special topic in this third issue of the Index of Relations is an analysis of Ukraine’s defense industry.

A short version of the report is available here.

A full report is available upon request. Please, contact Truman Agency if you would like to get it FOR FREE tetianagaiduk@trumanagency.com.

The publication “Ukraine’s Foreign Policy Audit. Index of Relations” is based on the monitoring and analysis of the events in the foreign policy of Ukraine by key areas: the EU, the US, China and Russia. The document is issued regularly, every three months, to monitor the dynamics in the developments. In addition to the permanent areas, the expert group will provide an analysis of a special topic, i.e. the most important event, issue or trend for the reporting period.

Besides by the experts’ observations, an important component of the research is exclusive interviews with Ukrainian officials responsible for certain areas in the foreign policy, Ukrainian and foreign experts. The document discloses the context of the events and provides the assessment of factors that affect the country’s reputation.