Publication

A policy brief written by Ivan Medynskyi research fellow at the Institute of World Policy.The provision of U.S. lethal defensive weapons to Ukraine has been a bone of contention since the onset of the conflict in Donbas. Proponents of the lethal arms supply argued that bolstering Ukraine’s defensive capability is essential in deterring Russia from further challenging the security order in Europe. Opponents believed it will lead to the escalation of the conflict. While the U.S. Congress has consistently advocated for a more resolute support to Ukraine that includes defensive lethal weapons, the Obama Administration has thus far limited U.S. security assistance to training and non-lethal aid. Despite this, President Obama signed the National Defense Authorization Act 2016 that removed the last bureaucratic obstacle for a $300 million security assistance program that would include the supply of defensive lethal weapons. This policy brief focuses on the consequences of how a U.S. decision to bolster Ukraine’s defensive capabilities would affect the conflict dynamics in Donbas. The key argument is that the provision of the U.S. lethal weapons would be unlikely to tip the scales of conflict in favor of Kyiv. However, it would send a clear message to the Ukrainian people and the Russian leadership that the United States is ready to supplement diplomatic efforts with more robust security assistance.

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The views and interpretations expressed in this publication are the authors’ and do not necessarily reflect those of the Government of Sweden.

This policy brief has been printed within the “Initiative for Development of Ukrainian Think Tanks” conducted by the International Renaissance Foundation (IRF) in association with the Think Tank Fund (TTF) with financial support of the Swedish embassy in Ukraine (SIDA).