Publication

Alyona Getmanchuk, director of the IWP, and James Sherr, member of the IWP’s Supervisory Board, answered the New Year’s questionnaire of the “Day” newspaper.“UKRAINIANS LOOKED FOR EUROPE, BUT HAVE FOUND THEMSELVES INSTEAD”

Alyona HETMANCHUK, Director, Institute of World Policy:

“I see the statement ‘Ukrainians looked for Europe, but have found themselves instead’ as the most apt description of past year’s processes. Self-identification, which was going especially strongly in eastern, central, and southern regions of Ukraine, was a fantastic show, even if it involved primarily separation from foreign identities, in this case mostly the Russian one. Most importantly, Ukrainians, or people holding Ukrainian passports, began to ask themselves the question ‘Who am I?’, and the vast majority of their responses were in favor of Ukraine. It was well-defined self-identification that served as the watershed between war and non-war: there has been peace where Ukrainians make up a majority, but regions populated mostly by mere Ukrainian passport-holders have been engulfed in war.

“One of the most emblematic memories of Ukraine-2014 for me is the fate of monuments to Lenin. We, in fact, still have three Ukraines: one where there are no such monuments, another where Lenin statues have been painted in blue and yellow, and the last one where Lenin monuments are still safe. In fact, these are areas where the Soviet legacy is still alive, regions where people are stuck in the post-Soviet reality, and, finally, places exhibiting a high willingness to have changes and Europeanization.

“Den cemented its status as a civil society newspaper for good in 2014. It served as an intellectual support for hundreds or even thousands of civic activists, volunteers, just smart people who were trying to do something for their country. By providing a platform for ideas and new faces of civil society, Den has made a significant contribution to enabling it to not only exert pressure on the government changing the latter from outside, but trickle inside and change it from within as well. That is, they are now trying ‘to split that rock,’ as Ivan Franko put it in his famous poem.

“And most importantly, Den was able to keep the hope alive that even in the most difficult days of the outgoing year, to prevent death displacing life. People who started to believe in themselves were the spark of the Euromaidan. Now, believing in our country has to become the spark setting us on the path to a successful Ukraine.

“Den’s Photo Exhibition shows precisely life displacing death. This, in my opinion, is the best and most exact visualization of the past year.

“A week before the presidential election, our institute received from Petro Poroshenko a flag of the EU which our Vilnius friends had with them when they braved freezing weather and kept the fight for a European future for Ukraine on. It now hangs in our office and serves as a reminder that we have to monitor implementation of the European agenda very closely indeed. Larysa Ivshyna very aptly said at the flag’s solemn transfer that was accompanied with a discussion on how well this or that president would be able to implement the European agenda: ‘President needs programming.’ To paraphrase, I would say that we programmed not only the president, but the country’s future as well this year.”

2014: REFLECTIONS AND PROGNOSIS

James SHERR, Associate Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Program at the Royal Institute of International Affairs, Chatham House (UK), member of the Supervisory Board of the IWP:

“From the twilight of the Yanukovych era, a few observers had a grim and unerring sensibility about what was going to take place. In an interview for this paper in February 2013, I expressed the view that Ukraine’s authorities ‘could put the state at risk.’ Over a month before Yanukovych’s departure, I warned that a Russian occupation of Crimea was a ‘serious possibility.’ Two weeks before Crimea’s annexation, in a rare burst of optimism, I had the temerity to tell this paper that ‘there will be a qualitative change in the West’s behavior, and Russia will feel it.’

“Today there is no basis for predicting what will happen tomorrow. Vladimir Putin has created a world of fantasy held together by half truths. His policy has sharpened every point of cleavage in Russia’s geopolitical position and his own presidency. Between 2008 and 2013, he played a high risk game based on a treacherously shrewd grasp of his opponents’ deficiencies and illusions. But he never was reckless. The danger today is that recklessness could be his only escape from the bind he has created for himself.

“First he has narrowed the circle of power to the point where the party game in Moscow is guessing whether three, four or five like-minded individuals have direct access to him. The methodology of the security services and GRU is now the methodology of the state. On the 19-member US National Security Council, there are four members with economic responsibilities. On the 31-member RF Security Council, there is one. This is not auspicious for a president whose nerves react slowly to economic stimuli.

“Second, and not for the first time, he has catastrophically misjudged the character of Ukraine. He has persuaded the most Russophile country in Europe that Russia is its mortal foe. He is also doing what no Western leader has done: persuading Ukraine to solve its own problems. For the first time since independence, Russia has become more of a threat to the average Ukrainian than his own authorities.

“Third, he has purged the once inexhaustible ranks of Russophiles in the West, including, fatefully, Germany. Beginning with Frank-Walter Steinmeier, those who have worked tirelessly to bring Russia into the European family now feel indignant and betrayed.

“Fourth, he has boxed Russia into a ‘civilizational’ conflict that it cannot win. Between 2000 and 2008, he appealed to Europe on the basis of ‘common European culture.’ Since then, he has demanded Europe’s respect for Russia and russkiy mir as a ‘distinctive,’ ‘historically conditioned’ ‘civilizational’ pole in world politics. Without Ukraine’s participation in this civilizational project, it ceases to exist.

“Those who have sewn this corset show no sign of accepting a compromise that other would find acceptable. They retain an impressive capacity to achieve lose-lose outcomes and a formidable body of supporters who believes Pyrrhic victory will be better than defeat. The West has an incurable fascination for ‘endgames.’ But it would be wiser to think about new games and ways to prevent endless turmoil. And it is no longer imprudent to contemplate dramatic change in Russia, even collapse.”