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On September 19 the Institute of World Policy hold the roundtable “What should be the strategy of Ukraine after Brexit?”.To watch the video of the discussion click here

Special guests visited Kyiv for the discussion:

Sir Nicholas Soames British Conservative Member of Parliament, House of Commons, Minister of State for Armed Forces (1994-1997) (grandson of PM Winston Churchill)

Neil Balfour, former Member of the European Parliament, British merchant banker, financier and politician
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Ukrainian and British diplomats, experts and journalists took part in the discussion, in particular,Judith Gough, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the United Kindom to Ukraine, Olena Zerkal, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine for the European Integration, Roman Shpek, Member of the IWP Supervisory Board, Permanent Representative of Ukraine to the European Union (2000-2008), Natalia Mykolska, Deputy Minister of Economic Development and Trade of Ukraine, Volodymyr Khandogiy, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Ukraine, Alex Ryabchyn, Member of Ukrainian Parliament, Co-chairman of the Ukraine-United Kingdom Inter-Parliamentary Friendship Group, Peter Dickinson, Chief Editor, Business Ukraine Magazine.

Leonid Litra, Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of World Policy, moderated the discussion.
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Sir Nicholas Soames:

Thank you gentleman. Thank you very much for inviting me to come this today. I’m very grateful for the opportunity to although overhauled by the scale of the audience. In the British army we say: “It is a little above my pay grade.”
Can I just say a little bit about Churchill’s Zurich speech? Because I did an interview this morning on this. It was indeed all these years ago at Zurich, where Churchill outlined his view of what Europe might be. But it’s worth remembering that that was Churchill’s view of Europe as it was then. That was 1945 Europe. France and Germany were destroyed and there were tens of millions of people on the move. Europe was in smoking ruins and people looked around, souls in despair and desperation. And after that terrible carnage arose, the European Union, with all that has meant for a free Europe through the end of the Cold War and since, and all that it’s done, and I can start by saying that I deeply regret that my fellow citizens have voted, and they have voted, to leave the EU. So it is now the job of the British government, of which I am a mere backbencher (I am a member of parliament of some seniority, but only a backbencher, I don’t hold any official position), it is now up to parliament to make Britain express bring meaning to that vote, to that wish. Now we have to look at whether it is going to be a good, easy Brexit, or is it gonna be a tough, hard Brexit. I am very much afraid that it is likely to be a long and complex process, it can take a very long time, and I think that there is a fair chance that it will be bitter and protracted, we have to find our way through a really difficult position. I think this is what was a mistake, that’s where we are.
Now on your question, gentleman [moderator] on the British economy. You know, there is a very good saying in British politics: “You campaign in poetry, but you govern in prose”. Both sides of this argument made a lot of very extravagant and irresponsible claims, that is the freedom of a democracy, and I actually rather regret the use of some the arguments used in the Remain campaign, namely that it would cost 4300£ per household if Britain were to leave, that the interest rates would go soaring up and the British citizens would lie bankrupt down on the floor… and all that prove to not quite so true.
And I’m pleased to say that the British economy, which is a well-run economy, under the last PM David Cameron and his Chancellor George Osbourne, it was a strong economy, it probably was the strongest economy in Europe, it has good architecture, good foundations, low interest rates, good growth, but its outlook for the future might be uncertain. Britain is a country that is a global trading country, it depends very heavily on its relationship throughout the world, it is more outward-looking than some other European countries, and it will now be our need to renegotiate in the Brexit agreement, I hope, a positive and close relationship with the European Union, allowing us to go on our own way to arrange all these other trade deals we will have. But there is no guarantee that that will be the case and so the outlook is uncertain for Britain, and that will in time be reflected in our economy.

Neil Balfour :
I have been a committed pro-European my entire life. Like 90 % of the people around the world I was surprised and shocked at the result of the referendum. I think it’s sad that we had to have a referendum. I don’t believe in referendums personally. But it was a commitment that the PM David Cameron, gave in order to keep his party, my party, Sir Nicholas’s party, united. And that was a commitment that then he honoured and I don’t believe that many people really felt that it was going to be won by the Brexiteers. It came as a complete surprise and, to that extent, neither the Remainers nor indeed the Brexiteers had much of a clue what to do the day after. And it’s taking some time for the dust to settle and for the road ahead to begin to be mapped out. And the PM, the current PM, Mrs May, has made it quite clear that she is not going to pry at this stage to say which way it is going to fall. It is going to be some very tough negotiations.
Now, I said that I was a Remainer, but not against Brexit, and that’s despite the fact that I was an MEP for five years. And I say despite, because when you get very close to the way the EU is run, it is to some extent very shocking. People talk about a democratic deficit. That is not true, in my judgement. There is no democratic deficit.
For a piece of legislation to go through the EU, it has, first of all, to be conceived by the Commission, who are the Civil service in the European Union. They are not elected. They are the civil service. And they dream up ideas which then get put into form of draft legislation. And that has to come to the European Parliament, and then the European Parliament discusses it for months in its various committees, and it’s subjected to rigorous analysis, and then it goes back to the European Parliament to be accepted or rejected by the Parliament as a whole representing every single constituency in the EU. At the first stage, the Commission then serves it up to the Council of Ministers which is a very similar room to this one, which has 28 flags in front of each representative or every chair, and every chair is representing a nation that is a member state of the European Union, and every chair is a represented official. This is the second tier of analysis, if you want, before a piece of legislation becomes law. If it’s accepted by the Council, it passes into law. And that is not in my judgement, an undemocratic way of arriving at legislation.
What is very bad about the EU, what I found offensive throughout my five years as an MEP, is the extent of authority that the nation states have given to the Commission. It seems to me that the German Chancellor and the French President and all the other political leaders in Europe, who have the real power, they are the politicians to exert executive authority in Europe, have basically handed all authority to a bunch of unelected civil servants. That’s what they are. And for the British journalists, for the British newspapers, that constantly refer to them as an ‘unelected elite’, yes, they are unelected, yes, they are at the top of the pyramid, and therefore, they are the elite. As indeed are the civil servants, who run the British economy and the British political system. They are not elected, they are appointed, and they have very substantial political pensions, just like the Commission in Europe. The difference is that in Britain, the senior civil servants are answerable to a minister, immediately, and they don’t do a move without the minister giving his consent. In Brussels, the commissioners do what they like, because they know that at the end of the day they have been charged by the leaders, the political leaders of Europe to get on with the process of ever greater integration of the EU. And that is why Europe gives the impression (as it certainly gave in my country) of a group of overpaid doing what they like and not really answerable to the electorate of Europe. This is one of the main reasons why in my country, during the referendum, there was so much antagonism towards Brussels, as we know it in Britain. And of course, on xenophobia, which is present in every country in the world, and which rise its ugly head all the more when its people feel that their jobs, and their housing, and their schools, and their medicines, and so forth, is being claimed by immigrants, and when their children and grandchildren are gonna have a greater competition for their services.
The combination of those two, the loss of sovereignty to an unelected elite in Brussels, who paid little attention (I may say), very little attention, if any, to the views of the Brits (what we call the Anglo-Saxon point of view), and xenophobia – the marriage of those two is what brought about Brexit.
In my judgement, it should play no role whatsoever in the future of Ukraine. Britain will play its full part (as Sir Nicholas has said) as a nation state in this Europe to which we will always belong, okay, but a Europe that will be different. Europe will be different for sure. How different – time will tell.

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Ambassador Judith Goff:
Thank you very much. I am delighted to see how many people are in this room which is real testimony to the level of interest in Ukraine on that question. I think that the question is really timely. We had Boris Johnson, the foreign Secretary of the UK, in Ukraine visiting last week. And I think you can take that as a demonstration that actually in terms of foreign policy, there is a huge strand of continuity running through the UK’s approach to the world.
The British offer is still essentially the same. I was in London shortly after the Brexit referendum, and wills in the government kept turning. That was surprise at the result in a number of areas, but actually the institutions are strong and wills kept turning. And what I would like to assure people today and what the Foreign Secretary reassured last week, is that the UK will continue to play a strong role on the European continent. Over the past eight weeks, for example, we have sent a battalion to Estonia, we have sent a company to Poland, we will send further ship to Operation Sophia in the Mediterranean. We have not stopped. Neither have we stopped to canal policy to support Ukraine. That stayed the same.
We will remain a strong actor in this country. We will continue to stand shoulder-to-shoulder with you, and uphold to your territorial integrity, your sovereignty, and your independence. We will continue to be a strong voice for sanctions within EU whist we remain in the EU, until Russian implement the Minsk Agreements, it is our belief that sanctions should stay. That has not changed. We will continue to reject the illegal annexation of Crimea and in fact, elections which took place yesterday, we do not recognise those either.
We will continue to be the second largest contributor to the OSCE special monitoring mission in Ukraine, we are the second largest contributor behind the U.S., that has not changed. We will continue the humanitarian and our technical assistance. We will continue to provide military training and assistance that you get from the UK under operation ORBITAL. And we will continue to contribute to the EU which currently puts 250 mln euros of support to Ukraine. Some of that comes from the UK, and that will continue as well, alongside our bilateral assistance.
Our EU role will continue and within that, we will continue to support you as you develop your relationship with the EU. Of course, that has not changed.
And of course that is not just about the EU. The UK’s role in supporting Ukraine is strong within NATO. We are the second largest contributor to NATO; the G7, which is of course is a forum to support here, the G7 ambassadors have a job to do in supporting you in the reform matter; the UNSC, where we sit next to Ukraine at the moment as a non-permanent member; and the OSCE.
That doesn’t mean to say that there are no challenges to Ukraine in a post-Brexit world. But I don’t think that they come down to the UK and our referendum alone. There was a referendum in the Netherlands this year, which was specifically about Ukraine.
I think that there is a wider issue in European capitals (and you may want to discuss these as we come down to these) about Ukraine fatigue in capitals. What people think of when they think ‘Ukraine’. Do they think of a country that has a strong mentality from the young generation, that has potential (which is, incidentally, what I think)? Or do they buy in the propaganda, and so the narrative that comes from elsewhere, that this is a country that is failing? And I think that it is really important, going forward, that Ukraine does not become ‘fixated’ on the UK’s decision to leave the EU, but remembers that there is a broader constituency in EU. The rise of populism is something that we all have to grapple with, increasingly, as we see in elections elsewhere, as we go forward this year and into next.
In terms of how Ukraine best responds (I think this is probably the exam question) (as I said, you do not have do doubt the UK’s support), but you do have to continue delivering on reforms and tackling corruption. That is the best way to persuade people in capitals that this country is changing.
We will continue to provide support. In fact, we promised new support last week if you reform your judiciary and your customs service.
There is a huge effort around engaging proactively with the Minsk process (which I know is difficult) but it is also important in terms of Ukraine’s strategy towards the EU. Strategic communication is going to be everything. Communicating what Ukraine is, what Ukraine stands for, and where you want to take your country, is absolutely critical for going forward.
We will continue to support you in this. I think you have a great opportunity actually next year: we have the Eurovision song contest coming to Ukraine. You don’t get a bigger audience than that, to demonstrate where this country is going with the potential of its younger generation.
But I think it’s absolutely critical as well to develop investment climate here. To show that your country is open for business. We will continue to trade with Ukraine. Clearly, there will be technically issues with how we sort out the underpinning for that. You have the DCFTA with the EU. Discussions will start at some point in the future. But not quite yet. It’s absolutely crucial going forward that Ukraine’s strategy is based upon encouraging inward investment and trade. And again, going forward as well, the absolutely critical thing for Ukraine is that it keeps engaging with both the EU, the UK, other G7 members, and to understand that you do not stand alone. And that Brexit, although it has come as a shock in a number of areas, in reality, does not change the relationship of the UK with this country.

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Neil Balfour:

I think that one question had to do with the negotiations of Ukraine as a potential member of the EU. I think there are lessons to be learnt. And the simplest of all is “Always go for your independence. Always. At all times.”. Don’t be dependent on NATO, don’t be dependent on the EU, don’t be dependent on the United States. Be strong. What’s the best way for your country to get strong? You have to get rid of the lack of transparency in your politico, you have to clean up your judicial system (without the shred of a doubt), you have to get rid of corruption, you have to make your political parties independent of money. No one should be able to buy a political party or to hold sway of a political party just because they’re rich. You do that and you’ll make Ukraine extremely attractive to foreign investment. Because Ukraine has extraordinary assets which need capital. And the capital has to come from abroad. It will come. It’s longing to come! There is a wave of capital waiting to come to this country and waiting for corruption to come to an end. Once you have that, you’ll have strength in all negotiations, be they bilateral, be they within the context of the EU or NATO or anything else. But stick to your independence that you can only really achieve where you want to go if you effectively cut out corruption from your political and judicial system. It is as simple as that.

There was also one question, I think, that related to the future of the shape of Europe post-Brexit. We can all notice a rising nationalism around the world, not just in Europe. We have an intensively nationalist government in Poland, embarrassing; we have had a very near success of an extreme nationalist group in Austria; you’ve seen the rise of nationalist groups even in Mrs Merkel’s backyard; you’ve seen nationalism in the UK and the U.S. And I would love to eradicate it but you can’t. It’s a fact of life. So live with it. But be strong by being clean.

Sir Nicholas Soames :

I don’t agree with my friend and colleague Neil, I think we live in a multi-dependent world. I think that the idea of not having sort of partners and being your own organisation in the long run is not a good one in a complex and difficult world today. But I do agree very strongly with one thing: and that is that there is only one way to your own success, and that is through the economy. It is economic strength. You will only have notice strength in the world if you have economic strength. And there is an absolutely revolutionary transformation in the whole pattern of trade, commerce, and exchange that is going on in the world. And if you’re not up for it (which we need to be, just as much as you do), it is going to be very difficult to make your way in the modern world, which is totally different to the world of the Zurich speech, which people keep referencing.
And the final point I’d make is that the world won’t wait for Ukraine. And it won’t wait all the more for Britain to make up its mind on what it’s gonna do about Brexit. We aren’t in an age of waiting. We are in an age of consequences. And we need to pick them up.

Ambassador Judith Goff:

I think you have to be very careful in talking about future membership of the EU. Brexit is a fundamental change for the European Union. But in some ways it’s not an endpoint. It is a symptom of something that is broader that is going on within the European Union. We saw it earlier in the referendum in the Netherlands, which was specifically about Ukraine. I think what you have on the table at the moment is something that is really good, the AA and the DCFTA, and we will continue supporting you in implementing that. And I think this is the key. That is the nature of the relationship that at the moment Ukraine has with Europe. And we support you in that because we see you as a European country and we see this as the catalyst for the reforms that you need to live in the prosperous, secure future that you deserve. And I think that’s really important.
Getting your messages into all capitals in the European Union, telling what Ukraine is, what it stands for, how you are reforming, tackling corruption and open for business. And yes, you have an issue with Russia. But it can’t always be about Russia. It has to be about reforms, tackling corruption, and demonstrating that you’re open for business. The UK is open for business with Ukraine, and that’s part of my role here to talk about the trade relationship between those two countries.

Sir Nicholas Soames:

We’re talking about Brexit as if it were something that has happened. It has not happened. Its shape and form and style is not in any way near to be decided. The Prime Minister has not yet triggered article 50 and I am a friend of the Prime Minister’s. And I have talked to her about the out of length and I have absolutely no idea when Brexit will happen. And it’s important that a country like Ukraine that you don’t look at Brexit as an end of end, as far as this country or the European Union is concerned. Brexit is not an event. It is a process. And you need to play your part in that just as well as any other country in Europe needs to play its part. And you have important things to say and you should say them. And they will carry more strength if you do what we most respectfully and earnestly suggest you should do.

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