Аналітична записка «Три сценарії розвитку відносин Україна-ЄС після виборів – 2012»

12:09 PM 18-10-2012

Institute of World Policy prepared an analytical paper “Three Scenarios of EU-Ukraine Relations After the Elections- 2012. The Impact of the Election Campaign on the Ukraine’s Soft Power”.Within the study IWP had analyzed three possible scenarios of the development of the Ukrainian-EU relations after the elections-negative, status quo and optimistic. The most probable scenario of the events is relations to the quo-status which means, which will not lead to any significant adjustments during the dialogue between Kiev and Brussels neither for the deprivation nor improvement. According to this scenario in the case of relatively free and fair elections the signing (not ratifying) of the Association Agreement is likely to happen.
IWP also conducted a survey among European experts to assess the current temperature of relations between Ukraine and the EU, as well as to predict the post-electoral regime’s temperature. The first estimate is “-12”, the second – “-13”, which shows the low probability of significant changes in the relationship.
The full text of the analytical paper in Ukrainian language can be found here.
Presentation of analytical paper was held on the 18th of October in year 2012 at the IWP.(photo report)
The research was conducted within the “Soft Power of Ukraine in the European Union” project, supported by the “National Initiatives to Enhance Reforms (UNITER)”, which is funded by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) and implemented by Pact in Ukraine.