Transnistrian Conflict Settlement

01:10 PM 21-5-2014

One of the major missions of IWP is the development of recommendations for a Transnistrian conflict resolution.IWP experts focus their attention on the extensive range of issues related to the resolution Transnistrian conflict, in particular: the reintegration of population, reforming the peacekeeping mission in Transnistria, ways of solving the Transnistrian conflict, the Ukrainian role in this process and the problem of integrating Transnistria in the context of the EU integration of Moldova.
During 2010-2014 the IWP made five policy briefings on various aspects of the Transnistrian problem. During the official presentations in Kyiv and Chisinau, Moldovan and Ukrainian experts, journalists and diplomats were able to discuss the outcome and recommendations developed by the authors of the research.
1. “The New Foreign Policy of Ukraine”
Since March, 2010 the IWP along with the International Center for Policy Studies presented a foreign policy recommendations to the new President of Ukraine. “Ukraine – Moldova: it’s time for a frank dialogue” – a chapter written by the director of the IWP Alyona Getmanchuk about the Transnistrian conflict resolution became an important part of this paper.
Preparation of recommendations to the new President lasted for four months. Fifteen leading Ukrainian analysts on foreign policy were engaged into the process. What is more, a number of consultations with the representatives of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as with the foreign policy advisors of the main presidential candidates and independent experts were held. During the work on defining the recommendations, four video conferences with regional elites (Kharkiv, Dnipropetrivsk, Odesa and Lviv) and a roundtable in Kyiv were conducted. The full text of the policy briefing is available here.
2. “Scenarios for the Transnistrian conflict. Challenges for European Security”
The policy briefing contains the analysis of the possible scenarios for the development of the Transnistrian conflict situation, as well as a prediction of possible risks and benefits of the implementation of different scenarios. The probability of each scenario realization for the next five years is assessed via a ten-scale system on the basis of the arithmetic mean of aggregate assessments of 32 experts from Ukraine, Moldova, Russia, the EU and the USA. The working group of the IWP also observed the possible compromises which the parties could make in order to resolve the conflict. The full text is available here.
This publication was developed in cooperation with the Polish-Ukrainian cooperation PAUCI (Poland); Institute of Public Problems (Slovakia); Institute of Sociology, Hungarian Academy of Sciences (Hungary); Association for International Affairs (Czech Republic) supported by the International Visegrad Fund and the German Marshall Fund a project – Black Sea Trust for Regional Cooperation.
IWP presented the research “Scenarios for the Transnistrian conflict. Challenges for European Security” not only in Kyiv, but also in Warsaw. Leading Polish experts on Transnistrian conflict resolution, representatives of the Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, diplomats and journalists took part in the discussion.
3. “Ukraine’s position on the Transnistrian conflict and expectations of the OSCE chairmanship”
The author of the policy briefing, Director of the IWP Alyona Getmanchuk, acknowledged the potential of Ukraine to become of the most influential players in the Transnistrian conflict resolution. The Policy briefing emphasizes Ukraine’s great potential for developing the necessary preconditions for a peaceful resolution of conflict and notes that, unfortunately, this potential is used only occasionally, and there is no interest in a more active role of it. More about the nature of the specific means of influence that Ukraine can employ to resolve the situation in the conflict zone is in the full version of the policy-brief.
Presentation of the analytical report on “Ukraine’s position on the Transnistrian conflict and the expectations of the OSCE chairmanship” was held in January 2013 in the framework of the “Romania – Ukraine: Civic Forum” implemented jointly with the IWP and Romanian Centre for European Policy.
4. “Ukraine’s contribution to regional security: the Transnistrian conflict”
The Policy brief has been developed on the basis of the SDC fourth meeting results, which was devoted to Ukraine’s role in resolving the frozen conflicts in the former Soviet Union, as included in the aims of OSCE chairmanship. The main recommendations of the brief could be read as follows: members of the 5+2 format should ensure the sustainable approach to the Transnistrian conflict resolution, even subject it to the absence of favorable conditions for conflict resolution. Full text of paper.
The presentation of the analytical report on “Ukraine’s contribution to regional security: the Transnistrian conflict”, developed with the support of the Norwegian government and the NATO Liaison Office in Ukraine, took place during the 5th session of the Strategic Discussion Club on September 18, 2013.
5. “Reform of peacekeeping mission in Transnistria: a prerequisite for conflict resolution”
The Policy brief was prepared jointly by the experts of the Institute of World Policy and the Institute for Development and Social Initiatives (IDIS) “Viitorul” (Republic of Moldova), and with the support of the Black Sea Trust for Regional Cooperation «Black Sea Trust» (Marshall Fund project (USA)). Authors of the research Cornel Ciurea, Alyona Getmanchuk, Leonid Litra and Eduard Tugui analyzed the role and evolution of peacekeeping mission in Transnistria during the last 22 years. Experts believe that the reform of the peacekeeping mission is a necessary condition for conflict resolution, therefore they considered several possible scenarios of its reforming in the context of events in Ukraine and their impact on Moldova. Full text of the policy brief in Ukrainian and English.
The analytical report on “Reform of peacekeeping mission in Transnistria: a prerequisite for conflict resolution” was presented on April 29, 2014 in Chisinau.
A discussion “Would the Southeast repeat the Transnistrian fate?” about the dangers of possible repetition of Transnistrian scenario in the southeast of Ukraine was held on May, 14 in terms of the presentation in Kiev.